Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 100817.860488 106227.111715 111629.438900 117426.128650 123466.215926 129570.761546 136203.102750
2025-08-10 91658.417560 99922.818097 108401.474979 117739.272142 127723.509814 138067.908758 149584.508950
2025-08-17 84918.071446 95120.322297 105812.175017 117830.352110 130940.239212 144784.297960 160485.936382
2025-08-24 80554.584519 92296.183492 104820.426788 119136.816093 135010.730732 152034.100248 171631.755816
2025-08-31 76073.638570 88936.703645 102873.897921 119043.100089 137229.413424 156995.842395 180046.464645
2025-09-07 73314.222571 87251.507576 102562.536076 120557.321830 141050.099404 163583.112987 190152.832337
2025-09-14 70620.146516 85444.556920 101939.149573 121557.129446 144153.533964 169262.747990 199168.445966
2025-09-21 67719.032945 83229.680054 100697.484852 121707.260682 146165.636005 173612.248841 206607.544241
2025-09-28 65123.969411 81234.900191 99586.260766 121891.955798 148117.954298 177817.893655 213830.715652
2025-10-05 63742.591878 80588.408521 99975.441786 123764.228538 151984.148206 184203.740468 223572.329662
2025-10-12 62299.873628 79789.277194 100116.664291 125285.876111 155397.220819 190042.847166 232683.148633
2025-10-19 60619.708539 78625.408443 99755.418713 126149.334802 157985.701980 194889.966061 240627.103569
2025-10-26 58618.191082 77017.700971 98822.792822 126303.898191 159727.355197 198763.098727 247480.885177
2025-11-02 56882.389127 75676.506519 98161.130197 126742.483434 161780.842019 202996.555826 254777.732877
2025-11-09 55095.777711 74206.268661 97282.907625 126863.608819 163408.341916 206695.779496 261430.528630
2025-11-16 54045.266858 73620.547479 97461.282708 128256.833676 166571.628682 212243.541247 270331.147430
2025-11-23 52342.839412 72145.576889 96477.919718 128158.596011 167861.780512 215496.745505 276443.804881
2025-11-30 51536.126952 71789.565381 96874.334060 129767.005729 171256.699819 221322.980545 285720.734685
2025-12-07 50525.648055 71131.906778 96857.202329 130828.755187 173955.498030 226295.252811 293970.123974
2025-12-14 49163.161224 69969.691134 96156.899000 130988.184914 175495.990661 229825.327169 300444.954284
2025-12-21 47883.443714 68877.123670 95510.469506 131184.300408 177058.594211 233370.607637 306942.038306
2025-12-28 47435.583393 68874.131428 96262.004747 133172.123922 180899.440929 239772.485487 317031.640850
2026-01-04 46854.250319 68669.872894 96734.097720 134787.440289 184264.122765 245590.747402 326423.408518